In 2015, scientists with the Good Judgement Project proved that predictions made by the world’s leading experts in a certain field performed worse than monkeys throwing darts at a board. Seriously. In other words, the scientists found that professionals tend to make bad predictions…a lot.
That spells bad news for decision-makers in any organization looking to succeed.
Knowledge is power and good decision making starts with solid intelligence and accurate forecasting. In a world where anything and everything is data, the best managers succeed by using top tier forecasting technologies powered by artificial intelligence and machine learning.
Choosing a proven forecasting system that utilizes the latest technologies is important.
Not all systems are created the same. When it comes to information which shapes supply chains and influences critical decisions that make or break your organization—you need the kind of reliable forecasting that you can bet the farm on.
Why Prophet?
Facebook Prophet is an open source forecasting algorithm developed by the same team responsible for the powerful algorithms that fuel the world’s largest social media platform and advertising engines.
Prophet is capable of analyzing extremely large, non-linear data trends and makes accurate time series forecasts to help your organization make smart decisions. It uses the latest advances in data science to intelligently handle dramatic trend shifts, outliers, and even missing data. On top of all that, Prophet can achieve all of this autonomously, leaving you free to run your business.
If the idea of relinquishing control to a fully autonomous forecasting system scares you, don’t worry. Prophet allows for fine tuning and adjustment so you, the expert, can add parameters that account for the real-world, human element of data. The forecasting system is there to advise and assist, but you are always in control.
Testing Results
New Horizon Soft, LLC, did numerous tests to compare traditional forecast algorithms like Arima, Holt Winters and Exponential Smoothing with Facebook Prophet. In our testing environment, we have found that, more than 62% of time, Facebook Prophet was the best method for forecasting (Total test size: 266,549 items).
Further Reading
New Horizon uses Facebook Prophet as part of its forecast algorithm library. You don’t need a prediction engine to tell you that using the best tools brings the best results. For more details on how New Horizon Soft uses Prophet, Contact us today to get started.